California is chasing wealth that has feet

(blog.landeconomics.org)

29 points | by idbnstra 2 hours ago ago

57 comments

  • binlog 25 minutes ago

    Wealth taxes are a symptom of a broken tax system. If you let someone get to hundreds of billions in net worth and then realize they haven’t been appropriately paying back into the system, it’s already too late. Like the article says they can simply say “no” in a variety of ways, from fighting in court to simply leaving.

    • philipallstar 12 minutes ago

      > If you let someone get to hundreds of billions in net worth and then realize they haven’t been appropriately paying back into the system

      This is to once again mistake net worth for money. Net worth is not real. It is not a good measure of the money someone may be able to realise. They do not have hundreds of billions. There is nothing to tax until they sell some shares.

      • slg 4 minutes ago

        It's strange that people always make this argument for wealth taxes, but you rarely hear it about property taxes. If "net worth is not real" neither is equity in real estate.

      • ceejayoz 9 minutes ago

        > Net worth is not real.

        Good way to find out it this is the case: take it away. Not real, right? Why would they mind?

      • no_multitudes 4 minutes ago

        Simply let them pay the tax with shares. Problem solved!

      • pj_mukh 8 minutes ago

        I dont know why it's so complicated to just say "Money is Money when it's Liquid, tax it then". Any loans on wealth should be taxed..nationwide.

        But even in California's case this doesn't feel like anything anybody would object to. Given how much California Billionaires liquidate using loans on their wealth, I bet, they could do a middle class tax cut too to offset it a little bit too.

        I am little baffled as to why the politicos haven't latched on to this whole-heartedly. You can still proudly say you're taxing Billionaire wealth. Because you are! Just more sensibly.

    • jdm2212 12 minutes ago

      Larry Page owns about 5% of Alphabet, which is worth $4T, so he has $200B give or take. Which part of that do you think reflects a "broken tax system"? Companies should get kneecapped if their market cap gets too high? Founders shouldn't be allowed to keep even a single digit percent of the company?

      • binlog 8 minutes ago

        The broken part is that there is third world-level poverty on the streets outside Google’s offices, working class people cannot afford to live in the Bay Area, and a fifth of California lives in poverty.

        • JuniperMesos 5 minutes ago

          This has basically nothing to do with with market cap of Google or Larry Page's percentage ownership of it; and the state government taxing it more will not make this situation any better.

        • linkregister 2 minutes ago

          This is almost completely traceable to Californians' failure to allow sufficiently dense housing to be built on their doorsteps. The only thing Larry did was bring prosperity to the region.

          (I'm in agreement with the thesis of the article)

      • jszymborski 6 minutes ago

        Yes. No one person should have assets worth as much as the GDP of Qatar.

    • rayiner 18 minutes ago

      This fundamentally misunderstands how this paper wealth actually works.

    • palmotea 22 minutes ago

      If you let someone get to hundreds of billions in net worth and then realize they haven’t been appropriately paying back into the system, it’s already too late. Like the article says they can simply say “no” in a variety of ways, from fighting in court to simply leaving.

      It's only too late if you're timid and wimpy.

      • pc86 14 minutes ago

        And care about the rule of law. You cannot pass retroactive laws, you cannot pass laws that target individual people. If you pass a general law (which could very well have reasonable objections), people have to have a chance to leave.

        "I'm passing this law that is effective the exact millisecond I sign it, tough shit if you don't like it" is tyranny and despotism. But based on your comment I think you know that.

        • palmotea 8 minutes ago

          > And care about the rule of law. You cannot pass retroactive laws, you cannot pass laws that target individual people. If you pass a general law...

          A wealth tax is not a retroactive law, nor something that targets an individual person. It's a "general law" in your parlance. Think about it.

          > If you pass a general law (which could very well have reasonable objections), people have to have a chance to leave.

          I don't think so. By what legal authority is that required?

          > "I'm passing this law that is effective the exact millisecond I sign it, tough shit if you don't like it" is tyranny and despotism. But based on your comment I think you know that.

          No, it's not, and don't be ridiculous. When they passed laws against date-rape, would you have judged it "tyranny and despotism" unless the law was delayed to give the date-rapers time to finish up the date-rapes they'd planned?

          There's no justice in giving the wealthy the maximum opportunity to pick and choose the laws that apply to them.

      • cobbzilla 12 minutes ago

        the FTB is anything but timid and wimpy

        if the voters and legislature have the “bravery” to pass the wealth tax law, it will be aggressively enforced by the FTB

        the second-order effects, whatever they may be, would be clearly visible within a couple years.

      • xadhominemx 12 minutes ago

        Or if people can easily move. Or if you want the next generation of startups to operate in your state.

    • chis 9 minutes ago

      Just a moronic comment lol

    • cavemandaveman 11 minutes ago

      If the $100B+ was created through ownership of a company and is unrealized wealth, how would you have taxed it if not through a wealth tax? Nobody is getting to $100B by way of income.

  • abeppu 3 minutes ago

    > The land value tax can’t be dodged by leaving nor can it be passed on to renters.

    In what sense can't it be passed to renters? Esp if all landlords in the market were faced with a new land tax that they had not previously planned for, why would it not be passed on?

  • Ancalagon 29 minutes ago

    Man discovers prop 13. News at 9.

    • 999900000999 14 minutes ago

      And it will never be repealed.

      Old voters like the house they brought 20 years ago for 100k being worth 1.5 million today. They also like not paying taxes on that 1.4m in wealth accumulation.

      • pc86 13 minutes ago

        I think not wanting to pay some yearly tax on that $1.4 million because the government pretends that the same as having $1.4M cash in the bank, or making $1.4M in a year, is fine.

        Not wanting to pay the property taxes associated with a $1.5M home is the problem.

        • tikhonj 8 minutes ago

          Which is why we also have things like a deferred property tax program! The way to "solve" the problems Prop 13 addresses would be to expand programs like that, but homeowners—disproportionately active middle- and upper-middle-class voters—want to have their cake and eat it too.

      • gehsty 9 minutes ago

        Is it not that the gains are unrealized? If they sold the house they would pay capital gains tax?

        • Guvante 7 minutes ago

          Property taxes are unrelated to income tax

      • Ancalagon 13 minutes ago

        I mean, I do too. Mine just happens to have been bought before the last inflationary cycle.

    • everybodyknows 23 minutes ago

      But neglects to consider why it won a majority of votes. Why did it? And how does Prop 13 relate to the more recent Prop 19, which substantially weakened it?

    • palmotea 19 minutes ago

      > News at 9.

      The idiom is "film at 11."

  • MrZander 13 minutes ago

    I agree the proposed wealth tax is a bad idea, but raising property taxes is probably not viable. They are incredibly unfavorable to voters. No one who owns a home wants to pay rent, that's why you buy in the first place.

    Personally, this is why I am fine with higher income or sales taxes.

  • digitaltrees 14 minutes ago

    If the tax is calculated based on residency at the time it was earned or granted rather than when it vested or was sold then it doesn’t matter if they leave.

  • Animats 10 minutes ago

    It's the single taxers again, with a new argument.

  • jmyeet 16 minutes ago

    Two things:

    1. If wealth was only motivated by taxes and was going to leave, it would've left already. Fact is, billionaires don't want to live in Tennessee;

    2. Nobody is doing the right thing to tackle any of this, including California.

    The article mentions California has land and that's the key point. Unfortunately, California homeowners have been coopted into voting against their own interests to raise property values. If the house you bought in SF in 1975 for $80,000 is now worth $3M, you still only own 1 housing unit's worth of wealth. And that housing cost is an input into everything you need to buy because all the workers required for those things have to be paid high enough to pay those exorbitant rents.

    Let me repeat that: high housing costs are an input into everything that you buy.

    So what needs to happen? We need to stop treating housing as a speculative asset. It's simply stealing from the next generation. Worse, it's diverting investment capital from productive output because land has become the asset with the best tax treatment, highest returns and most government protections. So what does this look like?

    1. Some form of land value tax. The higher the value goes, the higher the taxes go. You raise the rent and your land value taxes go up because it's more valuable;

    2. Punitively tax land hoarding including second homes. We could give discounted rates to primary residences of state residents. Nobody else should get a discount. This would mean repealing Prop 13 and that's never going to happen. As an example of this, I'll bring up Prop 19. In CA you can inherit a preferential property tax rate. Prop 19 proposed to limit this to only one property could inherit this preferential rate and it barely passed (51% IIRC). Do we think that 49% of California voters have multiple properties that have property tax rates set 40+ years ago? Of course they don't. It's an example of how people vote against their own interests;

    3. Part of what sold Prop 13 originally was the idea of pushing seniors out of their homes with property taxes. Well, that gave Disneyland a tax rate that was set in the 1960s. California should do what Texas does: you can defer your property taxes until you die if you're a senior but there's no capped property tax rates like incumbent SF residents have and no inherited preferential property tax rates;

    4. Wind back the preferential collateralization of property for mortgage debt over time. Residential property lending now dominates bank lending and earnings. It's significantly harder to get finance for any form of productive output;

    5. Wind back over time preferential tax treatment for home ownership.

    Do I think any of this will happen? No.

    Oh, one of the worst things to do is transaction taxes, often called stamp duty. This is where you pay a percentage of the value on purchase. This really hurts mobility. I guess it's fine if it's only on the luxury end of the market (CA's is at $5M+?) but it's not a good idea regardless.

    The other part of this is to provide social housing like Vienna. The government should be a significant supplier of affordable quality housing.

  • guywithahat an hour ago

    I think the point of the article is correct; the issue with CA is everyone wants to live there, including rich people. If we try and tax them then they'll leave just long enough to not pay state income tax, if we tax property values then the state actually gets the tax and doesn't miss out on job creation or future revenue.

    Red states have implemented low income tax with heavy property taxes (think Texas) with great results. and although I'm sure California would just manage to mess it up it's a great idea.

  • cucumber3732842 an hour ago

    >. The land value tax can’t be dodged by leaving nor can it be passed on to renters

    ROFL what? I'd bet the author a lot of money that costs WILL roll downhill, the source matters not.

    • skybrian 41 minutes ago

      I think the idea is that if the market demand is such that it allows them to raise rents, they'd already have done it, whether or not expenses justify it.

      • cucumber3732842 32 minutes ago

        If they can't raise rents to cover expenses plus "enough profit to make this PITA worth it" then things (slowly over time) grind to a halt.

    • omgwtfbyobbq 30 minutes ago

      Yeah, that's unlikely. There are certain classes of renters it can't be passed on to during their rental term, but I'm guessing it can and likely would in general.

      People can also sell their land/homes and move. It's less liquid than other assets, but less doesn't mean people won't sell/leave.

      • sokoloff 15 minutes ago

        In Massachusetts it’s legal to pass on real property tax increases during the term of a residential lease, provided the lease contains specific clauses. (Most leases do, as a result.) And most commercial leases are triple-net, meaning the tenant is also on the hook for increases.

        I would be surprised if most land consumption taxes (whether structured as property or land) would not get directly passed through to the beneficial consumers of that land quite quickly, or for their privilege to consume that land to be terminated/non-renewed at the expiration.

        • epistasis 5 minutes ago

          One of the benefits of a land value tax is that it has zero dead weight loss: because there's a fixed supply of land, the tax won't cause less of it to be around, and you don't lose out on the beneficial transactions that property tax can prevent.

        • omgwtfbyobbq 9 minutes ago

          I'm California some percentage of certain developments need to be rental controlled, so those are exempt from increases for those lower income folks, but I'm sure the difference would be spread out among everyone who isn't rent controlled.

    • idbnstra 31 minutes ago

      I'm curious what costs you think will roll downhill and why

  • bigyabai 2 hours ago

    I ctrl+f search for "gentrification" and nothing pops up. I close the Substack blog and proceed with my day.

  • cuzezzzbbfofai 31 minutes ago

    I hope we agree that we need more taxes, it doesn't matter if they are taxes on billionaires, taxes on property, taxes on sales, taxes on crypto, or taxes on the poor. Without taxes we can't have a civilized society.

    • nickff 27 minutes ago

      The number of different taxes is constantly increasing, obfuscating the total tax burden, and making democratic accountability almost impossible. Additionally, tax collections are already at a historical high, while government deficits world-wide are also at record levels, with services on the decline, and no realistic prospect of balancing budgets. This is true for most western countries.

      Given the current situation, I do not agree that "we need more taxes", but would welcome your clarifying exactly what you mean.

    • aeternum 22 minutes ago

      For a long time I agreed with you, but seeing how the tax money is spent I cannot agree any longer. In most cases government is no longer even spending the money itself, instead it is giving the money to NGOs.

      I would much rather see people keep more of their dollars and use them to 'vote' for the products and services that benefit them most, via their purchases.

      • FridayoLeary 17 minutes ago

        Congragulations you have just rediscovered conservatism.

        • Terr_ a minute ago

          [delayed]

        • kennyadam 2 minutes ago

          …and how to never have any large infrastructure projects like highways or just services that run at a loss while being essential like the EPA

    • pbh101 27 minutes ago

      Taxes aren’t 0 right now, nor particularly close for anyone being taxed. Your statement supports taxes as a concept at all, but what’s the specific argument that they must be more than they are today?

    • vondur 27 minutes ago

      No thanks, I too much in taxes as it is. California has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.

    • opinion-is-bad 10 minutes ago

      The ratio of the economy that gets collected as taxes has only gone up over time. Do you have an idea for how much should be collected as some ideal ratio? At what point do the effects of taxation become counterproductive?

    • omgwtfbyobbq 19 minutes ago

      I think we should start with changing taxes on corporations/companies, specifically being able to indefinitely write off expenses against income regardless of size/etc...

      Most companies take profit eventually, but if it's possible for a company to decide to never take profit and grow/acquire perpetually without paying any taxes on gross income, that's a problem.

      That'd be like individuals being able to deduct living expenses and having uncapped pre-tax 401k contributions.

    • heathrow83829 22 minutes ago

      this is the sadest assertion i've ever seen. if sucking the life out of people is the only way people can remain civilized then we are truely lost.

      • jonah 15 minutes ago

        How else are we going to support public infrastructure and society?