If that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.
"It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings" really missed a chance to say it blows.
A lot of gambling is a scam executed form profit. I call it a scam because it's not always fraudulent, it's persuasion and a dash of misleading info. Often one party unduly influences the outcome or has information that the other can't have. Whether it's corruption to predetermine the result of a match, or knowing that the star player will miss it, or a gambling machine that suggests a higher expected payout than the real one, or even a casino's rules that arbitrarily decide whether your win was legitimate or not, in practice the industry is more scam than legitimate business.
This instance is what you could call a scam, maybe even fraud. But in the absence of manipulation or insider knowledge predicting the weather is pretty close to gambling. As is "does bitcoin go up or down in the next five minutes" or "how many tweets will Elon Musk post in the next couple days" (all real bets on Polymarket)
I'm a "holy crap how do they keep getting the weather so wrong" addict and it's as irrational as being a gambling addict in that weather forecasts have improved a lot. I've never been tempted to gamble until now, where I realize I can put my money where my (irrational) mouth is.
All that said, gambling addiction is like a disease, same as any other. Holding folks who have it in contempt is about the same as holding alcoholics in contempt. It ignores the fact that it's a real affliction and not a lifestyle choice. Polymarket is taking advantage of that affliction.
I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.
That'd be easier to game than "will somebody run onto the field in the next $sports game". Just bet yes and bring a hair dryer. Make sure somebody posts evidence to X so you can cash out
If the yes side is heavily favored because it's a "sure thing" then there will eventually be people who bet no and hire guards (or go themselves) to defend the weather sensor from the hairdryer-wielders.
If that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.
"It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings" really missed a chance to say it blows.
in fairness, hairdryers have to suck so they can blow
Thatâs rather dry humour for such a hairy situation
It went over my head, but I think theyâre full of hot air anyway.
"actual gamblers"
Gambling addicts will really gamble on anything, wonât they? Itâs a bit strange to see degenerate gambling dressed up as âpredictionsâ.
This looks less like gambling addiction and more like a scam executed for profit.
A lot of gambling is a scam executed form profit. I call it a scam because it's not always fraudulent, it's persuasion and a dash of misleading info. Often one party unduly influences the outcome or has information that the other can't have. Whether it's corruption to predetermine the result of a match, or knowing that the star player will miss it, or a gambling machine that suggests a higher expected payout than the real one, or even a casino's rules that arbitrarily decide whether your win was legitimate or not, in practice the industry is more scam than legitimate business.
And who fueled the profits? Gamblers?
This instance is what you could call a scam, maybe even fraud. But in the absence of manipulation or insider knowledge predicting the weather is pretty close to gambling. As is "does bitcoin go up or down in the next five minutes" or "how many tweets will Elon Musk post in the next couple days" (all real bets on Polymarket)
Yes, gambling. That's literally what gambling is, a scam.
Gambling takes many forms.
If you and I flip a coin for $100, there's no scam.
Sooner or later someone will rig the coin
Potential for fraudulent activity makes something a scam? That list is gonna be long
Or a spherical cow.
I'm a "holy crap how do they keep getting the weather so wrong" addict and it's as irrational as being a gambling addict in that weather forecasts have improved a lot. I've never been tempted to gamble until now, where I realize I can put my money where my (irrational) mouth is.
All that said, gambling addiction is like a disease, same as any other. Holding folks who have it in contempt is about the same as holding alcoholics in contempt. It ignores the fact that it's a real affliction and not a lifestyle choice. Polymarket is taking advantage of that affliction.
We rename everything to make it cooler to sell. Probably been a thing since the times of the sea people.
Even the term "sea people" sounds cooler than "those dudes who live over there by the water"
I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.
It never occurred to me that Goodhart's law could be applied to betting, but here we are :)
Already discussed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
Is that better or worse than invading Venezuela to rig a Polymarket bet ?
Is there a bet available to determine if the weather forecasted was impacted by a hair dryer?
That's not a bad idea. It actually sounds like it could be a very useful hedge/insurance play.
That'd be easier to game than "will somebody run onto the field in the next $sports game". Just bet yes and bring a hair dryer. Make sure somebody posts evidence to X so you can cash out
If the yes side is heavily favored because it's a "sure thing" then there will eventually be people who bet no and hire guards (or go themselves) to defend the weather sensor from the hairdryer-wielders.
This could be the origin of a new sport, and then betting on it would become even more common
I can't believe there's no honor among the gamblers!
Finally some hacking news!
Maybe it's bad to let people bet on anything, huh
hilarious title, engadget is still quality after all these years
2 weeks old news OP
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47869664
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
Dupe from a little bit ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
climate change via hair drier ;D
lulz futures paying off as usual
A fool and his money etc etc.
You love to see it.